Big Flip: Ignore Market Expectations of Recession in 2023

• The Big Flip is a macro thesis that suggests the market misjudged the timing of an upcoming recession.
• This shift in market expectations can be seen through Fed fund futures and short-end rates in U.S. Treasuries, which have priced in multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
• It’s possible that rates may readjust higher in 2023 due to persistent inflation, leading to lower risk asset prices reflecting higher discount rates.

The Big Flip

The Big Flip is a macro thesis that has been gaining an increasing amount of traction in the financial world. It was first introduced by pseudonymous macro trader INArteCarloDoss and is based on the market’s apparent misplaced belief on the path of inflation and subsequently the path of policy rates.

Change In Market Expectations

This change in market expectations can be viewed through Fed fund futures and short-end rates in U.S. Treasuries, which have priced in multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, providing a tailwind for equities due to this expectation of a lower discount rate.

Higher Rates Possibility

It’s possible that rates may readjust higher in 2023 if inflation remains persistent, leading to continued ratcheting of rates and sending risk asset prices lower to reflect higher discount rates.

“Higher For Longer” Rates On The Horizon

Given this potential outlook, it’s likely that those attempting to aggressively front-run the policy pivot may once again get caught offside at least temporarily as “higher for longer” could become a tone communicated with markets continually by the Fed Chairman.


The Big Flip is an interesting macro thesis that suggests markets may be misjudging when an upcoming recession will occur, as well as how long interest rates are likely to remain low over time which could have significant implications for asset prices going forward if proved correct

Crypto Empire Collapses: $8B Loss in Wake of MT Gox-Style Disaster

• Fall of FTX, a crypto empire, resulted in $8 billion of fraud to investors, customers and employees.
• In 2014 the world’s largest bitcoin exchange, Mt. Gox, went bankrupt due to hacks and mismanagement.
• Attackers had exploited Mt. Gox’s infrastructure through transaction malleability which led to the failure of the exchange.

Fall of FTX

The fall of FTX, a crypto empire that defrauded investors, customers and employees to the tune of $8 billion, rattled the ecosystem with many worrying whether it would survive or not.

Mt. Gox Bankruptcy

In 2014 the world’s largest bitcoin exchange, Mt. Gox went bankrupt following a series of hacks and mismanagement issues resulting in customers losing over 800,000 bitcoin. The Tokyo-based platform was originally used for trading “Magic: The Gathering” game cards before being sold by its owner Mark Karpelès who beefed up its code to handle an increased volume of transactions and orders.

Transaction Malleability

It came to light that attackers had been exploiting Mt. Gox’s infrastructure multiple times over several years through transaction malleability- altering parts of transactions data leading the exchange to believe withdrawals had not happened so they sent requested funds multiple times leading to its failure in February 2014 when it went offline for good after suspending trading earlier that month.

Bitcoin Protocol Faulty?

When receiving a withdrawal request from users on their database, Mt Gox would observe Bitcoin blockchain for a confirmation but because it is only final once transaction gets confirmed on blockchain attackers were able to alter parts causing ID alteration resulting in unsuccessful withdrawal from database according which lead them issue press release blaming Bitcoin protocol itself as faulty in watching mechanism before going offline permanently for good later that month .


The fall of both FTX (2020) and MtGox (2014) demonstrate how vulnerable cryptocurrency exchanges are when adequate security measures are not taken seriously by those managing them — resulting in immense losses for users investing their funds into these platforms

Bitcoin Mining Uses 52.6% Sustainable Energy: How the Reality Is Way Better Than Reports

• The Cambridge Centre For Alternative Finance’s (CCAF) study on Bitcoin’s environmental impact underestimates the amount of sustainable Bitcoin mining going on.
• ESG investors largely don’t feel comfortable investing in Bitcoin due to this misconception.
• To get ESG investment, independent empirical data must demonstrate that Bitcoin is quantitatively moving toward sustainability and is a net positive for the environment.


This article provides an overview of my research into why the CCAF study underestimated the amount of sustainable energy used for Bitcoin mining and why we can be confident that at least 52.6% of all energy used for mining is from renewable sources. The implications for ESG investments in Bitcoin are discussed, along with what would need to be done to make them more comfortable about investing in it.

Why This Matters

ESG (Environmental, Social & Governance) investments are soaring and on track to reach $10.5 trillion in the U.S alone. However, ESG investors are currently not convinced that Bitcoin is a net positive for the environment due to current reports claiming only 37.6% of energy used in mining is sustainable. It is therefore essential that independent empirical data demonstrates that Bitcoin has a positive environmental impact so as to encourage greater ESG investment in it and its user adoption rate increases unencumbered by government regulation or punitive taxation measures.

The CCAF Study

The Cambridge Centre For Alternative Finance’s (CCAF) released a study titled “A Deep Dive Into Bitcoin’s Environmental Impact” which reported that only 37.6% of energy used for mining was from renewable sources – far lower than other studies such as the one conducted by the Bitcoin Mining Council (BMC). Although Alex de Vries’ research has been debunked in an earlier article by Bitcoin Magazine, many still tend to trust CCAF over BMC due to its reputation as an independent research centre compared with BMC being viewed as an industry body despite having access to real-time data on energy usage in mining operations.

What Would It Take?

For ESG funds to invest confidently in bitcoin projects they would require three things: independent empirical data demonstrating unambiguously how much sustainable energy is actually being used; evidence that macro trends are moving towards increasing amounts of renewable energy; and proof that bitcoin itself has a net positive environmental impact overall when compared against other assets/investments within their portfolios.


In conclusion, my research shows that contrary to what was previously believed, at least 52% of all energy consumed by bitcoin miners comes from renewable sources – significantly higher than previously thought – making it possible for greater levels of investment from ESG funds into bitcoin related projects if they had access to this information and were assured of its veracity via independent empirical evidence gathered through trusted channels such as academic institutions or government bodies rather than relying solely on industry-driven reports like those released by BMC or other similar organisations

COLDCARD Q1: The Ultimate Bitcoin Hardware Wallet

• Coinkite is launching a new higher-end COLDCARD, featuring QWERTY keyboard, larger LCD screen and QR code scanner.
• The COLDCARD Q1 also has battery-powered capabilities and borrows features from the Mk4 including NFC compatibility and USB virtual disk mode.
• The Q1 features a specialized QR scanner with an LED, enabling users to scan under not-so-optimal lightning conditions.

Coinkite Launches New Higher-End COLDCARD

Hardware company Coinkite is launching a new higher-end COLDCARD, the COLDCARD Q1. It features a full QWERTY keyboard, a larger LCD screen and a QR code scanner, as well as battery-powered capabilities which removes the need for connecting it to an outlet or computer.

Q1 Features & Specifications

The COLDCARD Q1 resembles the historic BlackBerry. A gray body encloses the secure elements introduced with the Mk4 such as NFC compatibility, USB virtual disk mode, USB-C connector, activity LEDs for USB and SD card, CPU speed of 120 megahertz (MHz). Moreover, it adds two SD card slots, an LCD screen four times as big, ability to use batteries for power, a QR code scanner with LED illumination and advanced scanning algorithms. Additionally it includes a flashlight.

The QR scanner sits at the top of the unit and is connected to the COLDCARD internally using 2 wire serial port which ensures that scanned data does not do more than expected.

Pre-Order Availability

The new COLDCARD Q1 is available for pre-order but its launch date is yet to be determined.

Benefits of Q1

The specialised QR scanner with an LED enables users to scan even under less optimal lighting conditions making it easier than ever before.


Coinkite’s new high end Colcard Q1 launches soon providing users with enhanced security , faster passphrase input , battery powered capabilities , large LCD display , dual SD card slots , flashlight functionality alongwith specialised QR code scanners . Pre orders are open now .

Regulating Crypto: UK Announces Framework for Responsible Practices


• The UK government has released a set of regulatory guidelines to regulate the cryptocurrency industry.
• These guidelines will focus on trading and lending and require firms to create disclosure documents that meet “fair” standards.
• The consultation will end on April 30, 2023, after which the Financial Conduct Authority will consult on its detailed rules for the sector.

High Volatility

The United Kingdom’s government has released its plans to regulate the cryptocurrency industry within the country due to high levels of volatility and a number of recent failures that have exposed the structural vulnerability of some business models in the sector.

Responsible Practices

In order to ensure the safety of customer funds, the consultation will seek to create a framework with clear guidelines for responsible practices. The proposal places responsibility on exchanges and firms to define detailed content requirements for disclosure documents, ensuring “fair” standards. Furthermore, it highlights the necessity for cryptocurrency custodial actors and intermediaries to responsibly facilitate transactions and safely store customer assets.

April 30 Deadline

The consultation will conclude on April 30, 2023 after which the government will consider feedback and create a response. Once legislation is laid out, the Financial Conduct Authority will consult on its detailed rules for the sector.

Commitment To Growth

Economic Secretary to the Treasury Andrew Griffith commented that “We remain steadfast in our commitment to grow the economy and enable technological change and innovation – including cryptoasset technology.”

Twitter Set for Payments, Bitcoin Could be in the Mix

• Twitter is reportedly prepping for payments, and bitcoin might be an option.
• According to FT, Elon Musk wants the platform prioritize fiat payments first but has implied it could include cryptocurrency later on.
• This wouldn’t be the first time Elon Musk’s businesses accepted crypto—Tesla previously accepted bitcoin for cars before retracting due to renewable energy concerns.

Twitter Prepping for Payments

Twitter is reportedly preparing to begin facilitating payments through the app, having applied for regulatory licenses across the U.S.

Musk Open To Crypto Payments

Elon Musk is open to adding BTC and crypto as part of its Twitter payments vision, though his priority would be fiat payments first and foremost.

Musk’s Businesses Already Used Crypto

This wouldn’t be the first time that Elon Musks’ businesses have facilitated Bitcoin transactions; Tesla previously accepted Bitcoin for its electric vehicles before retracting due to renewable energy concerns.

“Super App” Vision

Musk has firmly reiterated since his taking over of the social media firm that he wants to see it become more of a generalized “super app,” which could benefit from the increased functionality of cheap, instantaneous payments using a platform like the Bitcoin Lightning Network.

Tipping via Bitcoin Lightning Network

Twitter has previously tested “tipping” through Jack Mallers’ Strike powered by the Bitcoin Lightning Network and added a feature allowing people to add their own Bitcoin address directly receive tips.

FBI Arrests Owner of Cryptocurrency Exchange Bitzlato for Money Laundering


  • The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has announced the closure of the Bitzlato cryptocurrency exchange, and the arrest of its owner, Anatoly Legkodymov.
  • Officials allege that Bitzlato was a part of a large illicit cryptocurrency network designed to circumvent sanctions, launder money and conceal crimes.
  • The DOJ alleges that Bitzlato facilitated more than $700 million in transactions involving illicit funds from 2018-2022.


The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has announced the closure of the Hong Kong-based Bitzlato cryptocurrency exchange, along with the FBI’s arrest of its owner, Anatoly Legkodymov. In a live stream hosted on January 18th, representatives from law enforcement revealed that the exchange was allegedly a part of a large illicit cryptocurrency network designed to circumvent sanctions, launder money and conceal crimes.

U.S. Law Enforcement Warnings

In the live stream, officials warned that criminal actors must answer to U.S. law enforcement no matter where they are located or residing: “Whether you break our laws from China or Europe or abuse our financial system from a tropical island—you can expect to answer for your crimes inside a United States courtroom,” they said in their statement. The announcement regarding Bitzlato comes at a time when regulators have been increasing scrutiny on exchanges such as FTX’s Bahamas hub and Gemini and Genesis who have both been charged by the SEC in just this past week as well as all charges levied against those involved with them..

Allegations Against Bitzlato

The DOJ alleges that Bitzlato facilitated more than $700 million in transactions involving illicit funds from 2018-2022., However at the time of the live stream Bitzlatos’ tagged wallets only had $11,000 on them which is small compared to what had been previously alleged about Three Arrows Capital and related entities which were also thought to be scams themselves . This discrepancy between volume could potentially frustrate those expecting proper law enforcement action within this industry .


This news clearly illustrates how seriously US authorities take crypto-related crimes regardless if it’s offshore or within US jurisdiction . It is becoming increasingly clear that anyone using crypto must abide by regulations set out by governments if they want to avoid any legal repercussions in future .

To conclude , The US government has made it increasingly clear through this case and others like it , that they will continue to crack down on unregulated forms of digital currency trading while seeking justice for those who have committed financial crimes through cryptocurrencies .

From Germany to Portugal: Julia’s Story of Hard Work and Dedication

• Julia is originally from Germany and moved to Portugal in her late teens/early twenties.
• Julia and her family have established a homestead in Portugal which feeds them.
• Julia is part of the local Bitcoin meetup which is growing in her area.

Julia is originally from Germany, but she made the move to Portugal in her late teens or early twenties. It all started with a three month job opportunity that she stumbled upon. Little did she know that she would end up staying in Portugal and establishing a homestead with her family that would feed them.

Since settling in Portugal, Julia has been a part of the local Bitcoin meetup which is steadily growing in her area. Julia has always been interested in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, so it was natural for her to join the meetup and learn more about it. She has enjoyed the conversations she has had with fellow Bitcoin enthusiasts, and has been able to share her knowledge and experience with others.

Julia’s homestead is a testament to her hard work and dedication. It’s no small feat to run a homestead that can provide for a family, and Julia has put in the hard work and effort to make it a success. She has worked with the local community to build and maintain the homestead, and has even been able to offer some of the produce and goods to her neighbors.

Julia’s story of making the move to Portugal and establishing a homestead is a testament to her hard work and resilience. She has been able to build a strong network within her local community, and has been able to share her knowledge and experience with others through her involvement in the Bitcoin meetup. Her story is an inspiration to those who are looking to make a move to a new place, and is an example of what can be achieved with hard work and dedication.

2.1 BTC Up for Grabs: Join Fedi’s Bitcoin Hackathon!

• Fedi is launching a Bitcoin hackathon to celebrate Bitcoin’s 14th birthday and will offer a 2.1 BTC prize to the winner.
• The bounty is open ended and developers are encouraged to work on modules that would enable a communal savings pool, store value in a local currency, facilitate private payments, or operate a communal vote-based spending pool.
• Fedimint is an open source custody platform that allows users to store their bitcoin with improved trust and security models, as well as privacy provided by Federated Chaumian Ecash.

Fedi, a technology company focused on building a Fedimint-based community custody platform, is announcing a Bitcoin hackathon in celebration of Bitcoin’s 14th birthday. The hackathon encourages developers to build out a Fedimint module that will bring real-world benefits to users, and the winner will be rewarded with 2.1 BTC.

Fedimint is an open-source custody platform that allows users to store their bitcoin with improved trust and security models. It is based on the concept of second-party custody, which involves trusting family members or friends with the custody of one’s bitcoin in a way that improves the trust and security models inherent in the classic centralized third-party custody solutions. Fedimint also leverages Federated Chaumian Ecash, which means users also gain privacy.

The bounty for the hackathon is open ended, meaning that developers can code the functionality they want. However, Fedi has shared some ideas of what those could be, including modules that would enable a communal savings pool to accumulate bitcoin for a large project, storing value in a local currency like dollars, receiving payments privately via static QR codes or links (similar to CLN’s BOLT 12 offers), or operating a communal vote based spending pool.

Obi Nwosu, Fedi CEO, commented, “At Fedi, we believe that Fedimint will become the ideal open platform for the delivery of consensus-based applications on the internet. Bitcoin was created to bring us closer to a future where individuals have full control of their financial destiny. With the Fedimint wallet, we are taking the first steps towards building a secure and private platform to store and share value.”

The hackathon is open to developers of all levels of experience, and is a great opportunity for anyone looking to hone their skills and get rewarded for their hard work. The winner will be selected based on their code’s impact and usability, and the deadline to submit your project is December 14th. So if you’ve got a great idea for a Fedimint module, don’t hesitate to give it a shot and join the hackathon!

British Leverage Undersea Cable System to Cripple Germany’s War Efforts

• In August 1914, Great Britain deployed a ship, the Alert, to cut off Germany’s communications with the world.
• Censors were then deployed across the empire, from Hong Kong to Malta to Singapore, to intercept communications and gather intelligence.
• By leveraging the sophisticated undersea telegraph cable system, the British were able to successfully cripple Germany’s ability to communicate and gather strategic intelligence.

The outbreak of the First World War marked a significant shift in the way Great Britain utilized its sophisticated undersea telegraph cable system. On August 5, 1914, the British declared war on the Germans and the Alert, a British ship, was deployed from the port of Dover with a mission to cut off all of Germany’s communications with the world. The Alert was successful and, the day before it set sail, a man was deployed to the cable station at Porthcurno in Cornwall. This man was given the job title of “censor” and numerous other censors were deployed across the empire, from Hong Kong to Malta to Singapore. The aim of these censors was to prevent the transmission of strategic intelligence between the enemy and their agents by intercepting communications.

The network of 180 censors at U.K. offices handled over 50,000 messages per day and the British were able to successfully cripple Germany’s ability to communicate. This censorship system allowed them to gain valuable insights into the enemy’s plans and intentions and to take advantage of any weaknesses they discovered. By leveraging the sophisticated undersea telegraph cable system, the British were able to gain an advantage over their enemy. The success of the censorship system in the First World War shows the importance of communication and intelligence gathering in the modern world. It is a reminder that the power wielded by those who are able to control the flow of information should never be underestimated.